Dear Ursula. Who wants what in the years to come

Hola a tothom! I am Max Griera, from Barcelona, the newest addition to POLITICO’s EU politics team, writing my first Transition Playbook from Strasbourg with a hangover from this week’s plenary extravaganza. Taking over from the stellar Eddy Wax, I will bring you the nitty-gritty of the EU institutional changeover … and more, weekly. On our first day together, I wanted to delve deeper into the desires of Parliament’s political groups now that Queen Ursula has been crowned. Let’s dig in.
EUROPEAN PEOPLE’S PARTY: The center-right EPP was the winner of this week’s Strasbourg plenary, as it managed to find enough support to get Ursula von der Leyen reelected as Commission president with a set of political guidelines that had a strong center-right focus. As the biggest group in the Parliament with 188 seats, they are the true majority maker and will be able to swing to the left (as happened with von der Leyen’s reelection) or to the right (as the radical right groups hope).
What’s next? Now that von der Leyen has been confirmed, negotiations will continue on the composition of the Commission and its work program. Below are the other groups’ wish lists and main challenges when it comes to working with the EPP.
SOCIALISTS AND DEMOCRATS: The biggest partner of von der Leyen’s EPP will need to ensure “political balance” in the next Commission college.
The problem? Up to 13 commissioners could come from governments run by leaders from the EPP, while the Socialists will only get those from Spain, Malta, Denmark and, potentially, Romania.
**A message from EFPIA: Imagine Europe’s scientists finding medical breakthroughs first; treatments to transform the lives of patients with chronic disease or slow down Alzheimer’s. Imagine Europe’s life sciences sector developing the best talent, driving economic growth and building health resilience. Over the next five years, we can work together to restore Europe’s leadership in medical innovation.**
Socialists demand fair allocation: “All those policies [in von der Leyen’s speech] will be in the hands of the commissioners and now we want to know if the political balance will be clear,” said S&D President Iratxe García, hinting that she expects more Socialist commissioners. “We want to have our Socialist commissioners in key portfolios, defending our priorities.” 
Schmit’s future uncertain. García added that the S&D wants to see its lead candidate Nicolas Schmit, who faced off against von der Leyen in several debates, in the next college. That would mean, however, that EPP-affiliated Luxembourg PM Luc Frieden would have to change his mind and back Schmit (that could happen if von der Leyen promises him a juicier portfolio).
GREENS: After begging to be part of the centrist majority, the Greens got some of their demands included in von der Leyen’s political guidelines and voted in favor — but they had to compromise. They now face an uphill battle to be included in negotiations because the EPP, S&D and Renew can reach majorities on their own.
Not enough: “This is not a green program, there is a lot of work to be done,” said Greens/EFA co-chair Bas Eickhout outside the hemicycle before the result was announced.
A leap of faith: The Greens voted Yes as a “leap of faith” because their dialogue with von der Leyen and the EPP “has created trust,” said Eickhout. “We see enough in these political guidelines we can work on but of course we will be very vigilant in the follow-up.”
RENEW: Unlike the Greens, the liberals are a key part of von der Leyen’s coalition. Still, their drop in numbers in the election means reduced influence and the danger of being sandwiched between EPP and S&D. Renew has already lost vice presidencies and committee chairmanships due to its downsizing.
Rule of law and red tape: According to Parliament vice-president Martin Hojsík, from Slovakia, key challenges include “to make sure that the rule of law [EU mechanisms] is not toothless” and “to combine upholding our environmental standards and targets and at the same time cut the red tape.”
Keeping up the fight: “This vote was only the beginning … as a green and progressive liberal force in the coalition, Renew Europe will keep pushing and cajoling to make sure of that,” Dutch MEP Gerben Jan-Gerbrandy told POLITICO.
EUROPEAN CONSERVATIVES AND REFORMISTS: During the electoral campaign it seemed that the EPP and ECR were set to work together and move the political agenda to the right, but Giorgia Meloni’s hard right group ultimately voted against von der Leyen. They do hope, however, to be able to work together with the EPP later on.
Hoping to influence the agenda: “With the EPP we are working very good, we hope the EPP will decide to shift as [much as] possible on the right, because now we have the numbers to change the politics,” ECR co-chair Nicola Procaccini told our Eddy Wax and other reporters, adding: “We will have to work on the content in the next five years, we are serious people, moderate … we would like to influence the Commission during the next years.”
Banking on cooperation with the radical right: The president of one of the ECR group members, Romania’s AUR, told POLITICO he wants to work closely with the far-right Patriots for Europe and Europe of Sovereign Nations groups. “We will cooperate with them, we are friends with them, we share the majority of the ideas … and we should come together,” AUR’s George Simion said.
Blocking majority still possible: The EPP and ECR could reach a majority when collaborating with Patriots and ESN — they have a combined 375 seats.
THE LEFT: Much soul-searching will be needed in the Left group to find ways to influence the political agenda, as it decided to reject von der Leyen (as happened in 2019), effectively becoming an opposition force alongside radical right groups.
There’s a plan: “We will be the watchdog of anti-fascism, worker’s rights and climate action. We will remain the agent of progressive change in the EP and build majorities for workers’ rights, in the fight against poverty and for affordable housing, food and energy,” the Left’s co-chair Martin Schirdewan told POLITICO, arguing they will chair both the employment and tax committees.
Majorities, how? Despite the Left having grown to 46 seats, the groups in the left camp in the hemicycle have shrunk and they will have a much harder time influencing negotiations, especially with the S&D and Greens looking toward the EPP for dealmaking.
HALF ARE NEWCOMERS: 54 percent of MEPs had never set foot in the European Parliament before this week, according to the press service, leading to some chaos and extra work for the civil servants helping lawmakers get a sense of what’s going on.
“Disturbing”: “It’s a little disturbing for me because it is completely new, and this building is like a Tower of Babel, I hope to be able to manage and to see what happens here and how to go to different places,” newcomer Gheorge Piperea (of Romania’s AUR party — ECR) told me in the hallways of the Weiss building in Strasbourg. “The Parliament is very crowded and very bureaucratic. I hope for my peace of mind that I rapidly understand what happens here.”
The Secretariat has got you covered: Parliament’s administration prepared training sessions and brochures to brief MEPs and their new assistants on the institution’s work. “You can take advantage of our vast experience, extensive media networks in both Brussels and the Member States, and our cutting-edge facilities,” says a brochure from the communications department (DG COMM). 
AN OMEN? The plenary session featured a couple of far-right MEPs wreaking havoc during Ursula von der Leyen’s speech ahead of the vote.
Performative politics: An MEP from Romania’s SOS party, Diana Șoșoacă, had to be escorted out of the hemicycle after interrupting Renew chief Valérie Hayer’s speech. “How many colleagues need to come and escort you out of the room,” Parliament President Roberta Metsola asked after ordering ushers to remove Șoșoacă, who screamed ”in God we trust … I have the right to speak, I was voted by Romanians,” while wearing a muzzle. More on this particular MEP’s plans to cleanse the Parliament’s demons from our Seb Starcevic.
“You are responsible for every rape”: Ewa Zajaczkowska, an MEP from Poland’s Confederation (part of the far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations group), ranted against von der Leyen during her speech: “How can you not be ashamed of the migration pact which means that millions of women and children feel threatened on the streets? You are responsible for every rape,” she said, adding: “You should go to prison and not to go the European Commission.” Zajaczkowska proceeded to tear up pieces of paper and throw them on the floor. 
Von der Leyen strikes back: “Not the one who screams the loudest or is the most disrespectful has the right of might, it is rule of law and respect that unites us,” the Commission chief said in response. 
A polarized (and loud) hemicycle: “This was not a good start in terms of political culture of the plenum … we observe a more polarized and more loud atmosphere among political groups and MEPs. The occasional shouting matches and irrational performances will hopefully not become the new normal, but the dynamics are definitely different than before,” Green MEP Sergey Lagodinsky told me in reaction to the show.
HATERS GONNA HATE: You know who hates the European Parliament? European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen! That’s according to outgoing Dutch MEP Sophie in ‘t Veld who told Eddy why in an interview.
WHAT NOW? PART 1: OK, so Ursula von der Leyen has won another term. But she still has challenges to overcome, first and foremost assembling her Commission team. At a press conference after the vote on Thursday, von der Leyen said she will ask national leaders “in the coming weeks” for a man and a woman to be nominated, except when there is an incumbent commissioner who is staying. She will then interview candidates as of mid-August. It is then up to her to divvy up the portfolios among the different commissioners. Here’s more on how that all works.
NEW AND OLD PORTFOLIOS: Von der Leyen said she’ll create a commissioner for the Mediterranean; a commissioner for fisheries and oceans; a commissioner for defense; a vice president for implementation, simplification and interinstitutional relations; a commissioner whose responsibilities will include affordable housing; and one whose brief will include “intergenerational fairness,” according to her political guidelines. She’ll keep the equality and enlargement commissioners’ roles.
WHAT NOW? PART 2: And what about the Commission chief’s (and Europe’s) place in an ever-more divided world? Our Nicholas Vinocur and Barbara Moens look at how the choice of a centrist will play out.
Current excitement level: Thrown into Strasbourg extravaganza on my second day, I can say it has been a great week!
Last word: “My office in Brussels used to be occupied by an MEP from a different political group — who was rather grumpy about having to move out since their group lost so many seats. Tough luck!” said an undercover MEP who will be shedding light on the Parliament’s good, bad, and ugly with their dispatches to POLITICO. Read the first one here.
Thanks to: Seb Starcevic, Eddy Wax, Paul Dallison and Ellen Boonen
**A message from EFPIA: The pharmaceutical industry is responsible for 21% of global research expenditure. It directly employs around 900,000 people in Europe and generates over 2.5 million jobs. It is at the forefront of cutting-edge research, like cell and gene therapies, cancer immunotherapies, regenerative medicines and mRNA vaccines. Despite this, Europe’s share of global research investment is falling; we are losing ground to the US and Asia when it comes to turning ideas into treatments and technologies. In 2000 Europe lost its place to the US as the global leader for launching new active substances globally; in 2023 we fell to third behind China. As we begin a new EU mandate, the focus on competitiveness of the Strategic Agenda gives us an opportunity to restore Europe’s leadership in medical innovation. Let’s work together to build a more competitive, healthier and stronger Europe.**
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